The latest Quarterly Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: March 2025 exposes the Albanese Labor Government’s failure to deliver on its emissions reduction promises, with rising emissions in key sectors leaving Australia dangerously off-track to meet its 2030 target.
While overall emissions remained relatively flat, this is not the result of Labor’s policies. The only real progress in emissions cuts came from COVID lockdowns, state schemes and the favourable weather — not from anything the Albanese Government has implemented.
Despite Anthony Albanese’s rhetoric, the data tells a very different story:
- Transport emissions are now higher than pre-COVID levels, up 1% (0.5 Mt CO₂-e) since 2020, driven by surging domestic aviation.
- Agriculture emissions have surged 7% (5.3 Mt CO₂-e) since 2020, dominated by post drought livestock recovery and fertiliser use.
- Fugitive emissions from gas venting have surged 24% (2.4 Mt CO₂-e), even as Labor touts safeguards and CCS schemes.
- The land sector “net sink” has weakened sharply since 2022 as La Niña ended, rainfall declined, and bush fires increased — exposing the fragility of Labor’s reliance on offsets.
- Half of Australia’s 2030 carbon budget is already spent, yet Labor has no credible plan to tackle the harder task ahead.
These figures make it clear: Labor is failing to deliver durable outcomes. Agriculture and transport — two of the hardest sectors for families and exporters — are moving backwards. Gas venting is surging. And the land sector, heavily relied upon by Labor to meet targets, remains vulnerable to rainfall and fire seasons.
The update also confirms that reductions in the electricity sector are being driven by projects approved years earlier, many under the Coalition, rather than by new policies from Labor.
To meet its 2030 emissions target, Australia needs to reduce emissions by roughly 15 Mt CO2‑e per year from now until 2030. By comparison, emissions fell by only 3 Mt CO2‑e in 2023–24, and the long-term average reduction since 2006 has been around 12 Mt CO2‑e per year.
As the Climate Change Authority highlighted in its 2024 Annual Progress Report, maintaining the current pace of reductions will leave Australia well short of its 2030 goal (p. 29). Without a significant acceleration in emissions cuts, the target is unlikely to be achieved.
Australians deserve an energy policy that lowers bills, ensures reliable power, and reduces emissions. This latest update shows the Albanese Labor Government has delivered none of the above.
Quotes attributable to Senator Dean Smith
“Labor is coasting on the legacy of Coalition projects. Their emissions reduction policy is failing, and families are left paying the price.”
“Halfway to 2030, Labor has already burned through half the carbon budget with no plan for how to deliver the rest.”
“Labor’s climate plan isn’t a plan at all — it’s higher prices, rising pollution, and a reliance on good rainfall and luck with the fire season.”
“Australians deserve a credible energy and climate policy that cuts emissions while keeping the lights on and bills down — not empty promises and excuses.”
“Labor promised transformation, but instead emissions are flatlining, while transport emissions are now higher than before COVID, agriculture is surging, and gas venting is up 24% — that’s Labor’s record.”
Quotes from the Quarterly Update
“Australia is 48% of the way through the Paris Agreement target period and has generated emissions equivalent to 48% of the emissions budget to 2030.” (p4)
“Overall transport emissions in the year to March 2025 are 0.1% above the levels observed in the year to December 2019, immediately before the COVID pandemic. This overall increase is largely the result of increases in annual emissions from domestic aviation and road transport diesel consumption, which are 16.8% and 7.6% higher in the year to March 2025 than they were pre-COVID in the year to December 2019 respectively.” (p19)
“There have been significant declines in electricity sector emissions since 2020… This decline in emissions has occurred while demand for electricity across residential and industrial sectors has increased. Residential demand is increasingly being met by rooftop solar supported by the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme, putting downward pressure on demand from the grid. Similarly, industrial demand is being met with a growing proportion of renewable generation, supported by state and federal policies such as the expanded Capacity Investment Scheme.” (p30)